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Scenario planning

Working out what you would do under several futures rather than predicting one.

Please note: This page explains what a term means. It is general information, not legal, financial, tax or investment advice, and it does not know anything about your business. Before you sign, file or commit to anything, check it with an accountant, a solicitor, or the official guidance we link to.

What it means

Scenario planning develops a small number of plausible futures and asks what the business would do in each.

Why it matters

It is more useful than forecasting where the uncertainty is large, because it produces decisions and trigger points rather than a number.

What it looks like in practice

Three scenarios is usually enough: better than expected, as expected, and materially worse. For each, define the trigger that would tell you it is happening and the action you would take.\n\nA downside scenario with a cash floor and a pre-agreed response is the most valuable one.

What to watch out for

Scenarios that are all variations of the same assumption. If every scenario has revenue growing, you have modelled optimism, not uncertainty.

Where to get proper advice

Your accountant. for the financial modelling.

Where to read more

Last reviewed 2026-08-28 by Fiducia Together · Next review due 2027-08-28

Please note: This page explains what a term means. It is general information, not legal, financial, tax or investment advice, and it does not know anything about your business. Before you sign, file or commit to anything, check it with an accountant, a solicitor, or the official guidance we link to.

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